Numbers abound, since we have seen that, in the end, both models systematically have a significant effect. If we take into account Przeworski and Sprague's idea that there can be a mobilization of the electorate in a logic of endogenous preference and non-maximization of the utility of voters. The psycho-sociological model says that it is because this inking allows identification with a party which in turn influences political attitudes and therefore predispositions with regard to a given object, with regard to the candidate or the party, and this is what ultimately influences the vote. Fiorina's theory of retrospective voting is very simple. the difference in the cost-benefit ratio that different parties give. The concept and this theory was developed in the United States by political scientists and sociologists and initially applied to the American political system with an attachment to the Democratic Party rather than the Republican Party. The second explanation refers to the directional model, i.e. is partisan identification one-dimensional? The sociological model is somewhat the model that wants to emphasize this aspect. in what is commonly known as the Columbia school of thought, posited that contextual factors influence the development . For some, this model overestimates the capabilities that voters have. 0000011193 00000 n
Psychological Models of American Voting Behavior* DAVID KNOKE, Indiana University ABSTRACT A path model of the presidential vote involving social variables, party identification, issue orientations, . We speak of cognitive preference between one's political preferences and the positions of the parties. Lazarsfeld was the first to study voting behaviour empirically with survey data, based on individual data, thus differentiating himself from early studies at the aggregate level of electoral geography. - What we're going to do in this video is start to think about voting behavior, and in particular, we're going to start classifying motivations for why someone votes for a particular candidate, and I'm going to introduce some terms that will impress your political science friends, but you'll see that they map two things that . The idea is that there is something easier to evaluate which is the ideology of a party and that it is on the basis of this that the choice will be made. HUr0c:*+ $ifrh
b98ih+I?v1q7q>. This is more related to the retrospective vote. Nevertheless, some of these spatial theories depart from this initial formulation. Print. The third criterion is rationality, which is that based on the theory of rational choice, voters mobilize the limited means at their disposal to achieve their goals, so they will choose the alternative among the political offer that costs them the least and brings them the greatest possible benefit. The utility function of this model is modified compared to the simple model, i.e. The idea that one identifies oneself, that one has an attitude, an attachment to a party was certainly true some forty years ago and has become less and less true and also the explanatory power of this variable is less important today even if there are significant effects. The initial formulation of the model is based on the Downs theory in An Economic Theory of Democracy publi en 1957. Ecological regression represents one extreme: the presumption that voting behavior changes systematically across groups but only changes randomly, if at all, within groups. Political Behaviour: Historical and methodological benchmarks, The structural foundations of political behaviour, The cultural basis of political behaviour, PEOPLE'S CHOICE: how the voter makes up his mind in a presidential campaign, https://doi.org/10.1177/000271624926100137, https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414094027002001, https://baripedia.org/index.php?title=Theoretical_models_of_voting_behaviour&oldid=49464, Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-SA 4.0). The spatial theory of the vote postulates that the electoral choice is made in the maximization of individual utility. First, they summarize the literature that has been interested in explaining why voters vary or differ in the stability or strength of their partisan identification. He wanted to see the role of the media in particular and also the role of opinion leaders and therefore, the influences that certain people can have in the electoral choice. It is multidimensional also in the bipartisan context of the United States because there are cleavages that cut across parties. Property qualifications. We are going to talk about the economic model. The function of partisan identification is to allow the voter to face political information and to know which party to vote for. There are other models that try to relate the multiplicity of issues to an underlying ideological space, i.e., instead of looking at specific issues, everything is brought back to a left-right dimension as a shortcut, for example, and there are other theories that consider the degree of ambiguity and clarity of the candidates' positions. The problem of information is crucial in the spatial theories of voting and who would need an answer to fully understand these different theories. By Web: Vote-By-Mail Web Request. The extent to which the usefulness of voters' choices varies from candidate to candidate, but also from voter to voter. 0000007057 00000 n
Voting behavior is a form of electoral behavior. 0000007835 00000 n
Directional model with intensity: Rabinowitz, Four possible answers to the question of how voters decide to vote, Unified Voting Model: Merrill and Grofman, Responses to criticisms of the proximity model, Partisan Competition Theory: Przeworski and Sprague, Relationship between voting explanatory models and realignment cycle. Voters calculate the cost of voting. On the other hand, preferences for candidates in power are best explained by the proximity model and the simple directional model. For Przeworski and Sprague, there may be another logic that is not one of maximizing the electorate in the short term but one of mobilizing the electorate in the medium and long term. The same can be said of the directional model with intensity. When the voter is in the same position, i.e. A distinction can be made between the simple proximity model, which is the Downs model, and the proximity model with Grofman discounting. $2.75. So there is an overestimation in this model with respect to capacity. <]>>
There are different strategies that are put in place by voters in a conscious or unconscious way to reduce these information costs, which are all the costs associated with the fact that in order to be able to evaluate the utility income given by one party rather than another, one has to go and see, listen, hear and understand what these parties are saying. 0000000866 00000 n
We need to find identification measures adapted to the European context, which the researchers have done. There are other theories that highlight the impact of economic conditions and how voters compare different election results in their electoral choices, which refers to economic voting in the strict sense of the term. European Journal of Political Research, 54(2), 197215. These authors find with panel data that among their confirmed hypotheses that extroverted people tend to have a strong and stable partisan identification. What voters perceive are directional signals, that is, voters perceive that some parties are going in one direction and other parties are going in another direction on certain issues. This article reviews the main theoretical models that explain the electoral behavior sociological model of voting behavior, psychosocial model of voting behavior and rational choice theory , stressing the continuity and theoretical complementarity between them. Finally, the results of this test are discussed and conclusions drawn. Voters try to maximize their individual utility. Has the partisan identification weakened? The scientific study of voting behavior is marked by three major research schools: the sociological model, often identified as School of Columbia, with the main reference in Applied Bureau of Social Research of Columbia University, whose work begins with the publication of the book The People's Choice (Lazarsfeld, Berelson, & Gaudet, 1944) Much of the work in electoral behaviour draws on this thinking. A rather subjective and almost sentimental citizen is placed at the centre of the analysis. They try to elaborate a bit and find out empirically how this happens. There is a kind of heterogeneity of voters. There was a whole series of critics who said that if it's something rational, there's a problem with the way democracy works. There is a direct link between social position and voting. In general, they are politically more sophisticated and better educated; those who rely on the opinion of the media and opinion leaders; that of the law of curvilinear disparity proposed by May; the directional model of Rabinowitz and Matthews; Przeworski and Sprague's mobilization of the electorate. We are not ignoring the psychological model, which focuses on the identification people have with parties without looking at the parties. The psycho-sociological model, also known as the Michigan model, can be represented graphically or schematically. When you vote, you are taking your personal time and effort to advance the collective good, without any guarantee of personal rewardthe very heart of what it means to be altruistic. Cambridge New York: Cambridge University Press, 1999. 0000009473 00000 n
The influence of friends refers to opinion leaders and circles of friends. It is a rather descriptive model, at least in its early stages. The scientific study of voting behavior is marked by three major research schools: the sociological model, often identified as School of Columbia, with the main reference in Applied Bureau of Social Research of Columbia University, whose work begins with the publication of the book The Peoples Choice (Lazarsfeld, Berelson, & Gaudet, 1944) and Therefore, they cannot really situate where the different parties stand. IVERSEN, T. (1994). Another strategy is the so-called "shortcut" that voters take within the rationalist framework of voting, since they are confronted with the problem of information and have to choose on the basis of this information. For Fiorina, the retrospective vote is the fact that current policy is fundamental, whereas in the prospective vote it is less so. This creates a concern for circularity of reasoning. If someone positions himself as a left-wing or right-wing voter, the parties are positioned on an ideological level. This is called prospective voting because voters will listen to what the parties have to say and evaluate on the basis of that, that is, looking ahead. How does partisan identification develop? Distance must be taken into account and the idea of mobilizing the electorate must be taken into account. The basic idea is somewhat the same, namely that it is a way that voters have at their disposal, a euristic and cognitive shortcut that voters have at their disposal to deal with the problem of complex information. The psycho-sociological model can be seen in the light of an explanatory contribution to the idea that social inking is a determining factor in explaining the vote, or at least on a theoretical level. By finding something else, he shaped a dominant theory explaining the vote. The directional model also provides some answers to this criticism. it is easier to change parties from one election to the next; a phase of realignment (3), which consists of creating new partisan loyalties. We project voters' preferences and political positions, that is, the positions that parties have on certain issues and for the preferences that voters have on certain issues. These spatial theories start from the assumption that there is a voter or voters who have political preferences with respect to certain issues, but completely discard the explanation of how these preferences are formed. The importance of symbolic politics is especially capitalized on by the intensity directional models. So all these elements help to explain the vote and must be taken into account in order to explain the vote. They find that partisan identification becomes more stable with age, so the older you get, the more partisan identification you have, so it's much easier to change when you're young. This theory is not about the formation of political preferences, they start from the idea that there are voters with certain political preferences and then these voters will look at what the offer is and will choose according to that offer. Linked to this, it is important to look at individual data empirically as well. There is a whole branch of the electoral literature that emphasizes government action as an essential factor in explaining the vote, and there is a contrast between a prospective vote, which is voting according to what the parties say they will do during the election campaign, and a retrospective vote, which is voting in relation to what has been done, particularly by the government, which has attributed the successes or failures of a policy. Four landmark studies connected with the presidential elections of 1940, 1948, 1952, and 1956 mark the establishment of scholarly survey-based research on voting behavior (Rossi 1959). Today, when we see regression analyses of electoral choice, we will always find among the control variables social status variables, a religion variable and a variable related to place of residence. The first answer is that basically, they vote according to their position, according to their social characteristics or according to their socialization, which refers to the sociological model. There may be a vote that is different from partisan identification, but in the medium to long term, partisan identification should strengthen. This model of voting behavior sees the voter as thinking individual who is able to take a view on political issues and votes accordingly. Among these bridges, one of the first bridges between the psycho-sociological voting theory and the rationalist theories was made by Fiorina because he considers partisan identification to be an important element in explaining electoral choice. So, voters evaluate the positions of the parties and from these positions, this party is a left-wing party and this party is a right-wing party. In the Michigan model, the idea of stakes was already present but was somewhat underdeveloped, and this perspective on the role of stakes in the psychosocial model lent itself to both theoretical and empirical criticism from proponents of rationalist models. Hence the creation of the political predisposition index which should measure and capture the role of social insertion or position in explaining electoral choice. Then they evaluate their own position in relation to the issues and they do the same operation positioning themselves on this left-right axis. Value orientations refer to materialism as well as post-materialism, among other things, cleavages but no longer from a value perspective. This diagram shows the process of misalignment with changes in the generational structure and changes in the social structure that create political misalignment. Voting requires voters to know the candidates' positions on issues, but when there are several candidates or several parties, it is not very easy for some voters in particular. xb```f`` @f8F F'-pWs$I*Xe<
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It is a very detailed literature today. There is also a literature on whether certain parties have certain issues, which voters believe are the parties that are better able to deal with a certain issue. All of these factors and their relationships have to be taken into account, but at the centre is always the partisan attachment. One important element of this model must be highlighted in relation to the others. There are a whole bunch of individual characteristics related to the fact that one is more of a systematic voter of something else. . On the other hand, this is true for the directional model; they manage to perceive a policy direction. The voters have to make that assessment and then decide which one brings more income and which one we will vote for. Reinforcement over time since adult voters increasingly rely on this partisan identification to vote and to face the problems of information, namely partisan identification seen as a way of solving a problem that all voters have, which is how to form an idea and deal with the abundance and complexity of the information that comes to us from, for example, the media, political campaigns or others in relation to the political offer. Psychological theories are based on a type of explanation that does not focus on the issues discussed during a political campaign, for example. 135150. The distance must be assessed on the basis of what the current policy is. Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire: Macmillan Education, 1987. Pages pour les contributeurs dconnects en savoir plus. Thus, they were well suited not only to develop and test theories of voting behavior, but also to provide an historical record of the considerations shaping the outcomes of specific national elections. This is the proximity model. However, he conceives the origin and function of partisan identification in a different way from what we have seen before. The Lazarsfeld model would link membership and voting. This paper examines two models used in survey research to explain voting behavior and finds that both models may be more or less correct. In other words, they are voters who are not prepared to pay all these costs and therefore want to reduce or improve the cost-benefit ratio which is the basis of this electoral choice by reducing the costs and the benefit will remain unchanged. The basic assumptions of the economic model of the vote are threefold: selfishness, which is the fact that voters act according to their individual interests and not according to their sense of belonging to a group or their attachment to a party. A unified theory of voting: directional and proximity spatial models. Discounting is saying that the voter does not fully believe what the parties say. Three notions must be distinguished: a phase of political alignment (1), which is when there is a strengthening of partisan loyalties, i.e. Distance is understood in the sense of the proximity model for whom voter preference and party position is also important. A corollary to this theory is that voters react more to the government than to the opposition because performance is evaluated and a certain state of the economy, for example, can be attributed to the performance of a government. Curiously, the intensity directional model that adds an element to the simple directional model chronologically precedes the simple directional model. There are two variations. The initial research saw three major factors to voting behaviour: Personal identification with one of the political parties, concern with issues of national government policy and personal attraction to the presidential candidates. On this basis, four types of voters can be identified in a simplified manner: It is possible to start from the assumption that the characteristics of these different voters are very different. The specified . The role of the media and campaigns simplifies information by summarizing it. Spatial theories of voting are nothing other than what we have seen so far with regard to the economic model of voting. as a party's position moves away from our political preferences. In the retrospective model, some researchers have proposed an alternative way of viewing partisan identification as being determined by the position voters take on issues. If voters, who prefer more extreme options, no longer find these options within the party they voted for, then they will look elsewhere and vote for another party. In a phase of alignment, this would be the psycho-sociological model, i.e. The sociological model at the theoretical level emphasizes something important that rationalist and economic theories have largely overlooked, namely, the importance of the role of social context, i.e., voters are all in social contexts and therefore not only family context but also a whole host of other social contexts. For example, a strongly conservative voter who votes Democratic may vote Republican because he or she feels more in tune with the party. Grofman's idea is to say that the voter discounts what the candidates say (discounting) based on the difference between current policy and what the party says it will do or promise. The choice of candidates is made both according to direction but also according to the intensity of positions on a given issue. Often, in Anglo-Saxon literature, this model is referred to as the party identification model. The idea of intensity can also be seen as the idea that there are certain issues, that there are certain political positions that put forward symbols and some of these symbols evoke making these two issues more visible to voters but in the sense of making voters say that this particular party is going in that direction and with a high intensity. Rationalist theories and spatial models of the vote have had the very beneficial relationship of putting precisely the free choice of voters at the centre of analyses. Candidate choices are made towards parties or candidates who are going in the same direction as the voter, this being understood as the voters' political preferences on a given issue. In this theory, we vote for specific issues that may be more or less concrete, more or less general, and which form the basis for explaining electoral behaviour. party loyalties are freed from their social base and thus these party identifications are formed and crystallized. and voters who choose to use euristic shortcuts to solve the information problem. The idea is that a party is ready to lose an election in order to give itself the means to win it later by giving itself time to form an electorate. There is an idea of interdependence between political supply and demand, between parties and voters, which is completely removed from other types of explanations. The starting point is that there is a congruence of attitudes between party leaders and voters due to the possibility of exit for voters when the party no longer represents them (exit). This model predicts a convergence of party program positions around two distinct positions, there are two types of convergence. There is little room for context even though there are more recent developments that try to put the voter's freedom of choice in context. Finally, they can vote for the candidate who is most likely in the voters' perception to change things in a way or in a way that leaves them the most satisfied. Hinich and Munger say the opposite, saying that on the basis of their idea of the left-right positioning of the parties, they somehow deduce what will be or what is the position of these parties on the different issues. Since the economic crisis, there has been an increasing focus on the economic crisis and economic conditions and how that can explain electoral volatility and electoral change. There are also intermediate variables that relate to loyalties to a certain group or sense of belonging. The anomaly is that there is a majority of the electorate around the centre, but there are parties at the extremes that can even capture a large part of the preferences of the electorate. Although the models rely on the same data they make radically different predictions about the political future. The psycho-sociological model initiated the national election studies and created a research paradigm that remains one of the two dominant research paradigms today and ultimately contributed to the creation of electoral psychology. In the literature, spatial theories of voting are often seen as one of the main developments of the last thirty years which has been precisely the development of directional models since the proximity model dates back to the 1950s. Lazarsfeld's book created this research paradigm. The idea is to see what are all the factors that explain the electoral choice. With regard to the question of how partisan identification develops, the psycho-sociological model emphasizes the role of the family and thus of primary socialization, but several critics have shown that secondary socialization also plays a role. It is a small bridge between different explanations. There is in fact the idea that the choices and preferences of voters in the centre will cause the parties, since they are aiming in this model, to try to maximize their electoral support. For Fiorina the voter does not do that, he will rather look at what has happened, he will also look at the state of affairs in a country, hence the importance of the economic vote in the narrower sense of the word. Fiorina reverses the question, in fact, partisan identification can result from something else and it also produces electoral choices. Otherwise, our usefulness as voters decreases as a party moves away, i.e. We leave behind the idea of spatial theories that preferences are exogenous, that they are pre-existing and almost fixed. "The answer is "yes", as postulated by spatial theories, or "no", as stated by Przeworski and Sprague, for example. In this representation, there are factors related to the cleavages, but also other factors that relate to the economic, political or social structure of a country being factors that are far removed from the electoral choice but that still exert an important effect in an indirect way the effect they have on other variables afterwards. In this model, importance is given to primary socialization. Lazarsfeld was interested in this and simply, empirically, he found that these other factors had less explanatory weight than the factors related to political predisposition and therefore to this social inking. This model of directional proximity with intensity illustrates what is called symbolic politics which is related to the problem of information. This model shows that there is more than political identities, partisan identification and social inking. There is an opposite reasoning. 5. Fiorina proposed the question of how to evaluate the position of different parties and candidates: how can voters know what the position of different parties is during an election campaign? It is a theory that makes it possible to explain both the voting behaviour of voters and the organisational behaviour of political parties. With regard to the limits, methodological individualism has often been evoked, saying that it is an exclusively micro-sociological perspective that neglects the effect of social structure. Video transcript. A symbol is evaluated on the basis of two parameters, namely direction (1), a symbol gives a certain direction in the policy and in addition a certain intensity (2) which is to what extent is one favourable or unfavourable to a certain policy. Which the researchers have done and capture the role of social insertion or position in relation the! Theory of retrospective voting is very simple conceives the origin and function of this model predicts a of! 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